Egy figyelemre méltó elemzés Törökországról. Én még mindig nem vagyok meggyőződve róla, hogy ezeknek helyük van az EU-ban.
U.S. Congressman Robert Wexler
did not mince his words during a visit to Ankara last week when
he condemned Turkey's decision in February to host leaders of
the militant Palestinian Islamist group Hamas.
"Your opponents have been bolstered and your friends have
been deflated (by that invitation)," he told a gathering that
included members of Turkey's ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP) and Foreign Ministry officials.
Wexler's comments, coming nearly two months after the event,
underlined the continued repercussions of a visit that outraged
Israel and the United States, dismayed the EU and many Turkish
diplomats and stirred suspicions that the AKP wants to remould
Turkey's foreign policy along more Islamist lines.
Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who has roots in political
Islam, has defended the decision as an attempt, made in good
faith, to bridge the gulf between Israel and the Palestinians,
who had just handed power to Hamas in a democratic election.
"(But) I cannot for the life of me imagine how this visit
could serve Turkey's interests," said Wexler, a Democrat who has
long worked to promote relations between Washington and Ankara.
Though overwhelmingly Muslim, Turkey has been firmly in the
Western camp under successive governments since the start of the
Cold War. It has a strictly secular political system, belongs to
NATO and last year began European Union membership talks.
Ankara also has close security and trade ties with Israel,
hence the shock that greeted Turkey's invitation to an
organisation which denies the Jewish state's right to exist and
which is branded as "terrorist" by Washington and the EU.
The Hamas-led Palestinian government sparked fresh Western
ire this week when it called a suicide bombing in Tel Aviv by
kindred militant group Islamic Jihad an act of "self defence".
Turkey's Foreign Ministry strongly condemned the bombing.
For some analysts, the Hamas trip is a clear example of how
Erdogan, heeding his own advisers more than Turkey's cautious
Foreign Ministry, wants to boost ties with the Islamic world
even at the risk of undermining Ankara's traditional alliances.
"Foreign policy is definitely taking on a more Islamist tone
under this government," said Ali Tekin, who teaches
international relations at Ankara's Bilkent University.
"Erdogan seems to be vying to become more popular than Arab
leaders in the Middle East, but this is a dangerous tactic."
DISENCHANTMENT WITH EU
Analysts say Erdogan travels more often to other Muslim
countries than to Europe these days.
Last week, attending a meeting of the Arab League in Sudan
as an observer, he raised eyebrows in the EU by rejecting
Western accusations that the Khartoum government is guilty of
genocide in its Darfur region.
Some see Erdogan's increased contacts with the Muslim world
as a result of Turkey's EU woes. Turkey has accused the bloc of
treating it unfairly, especially over the thorny Cyprus issue.
"As the AKP loses faith in the EU process, this corresponds
to a stronger interest and involvement in the Middle East," said
Ayhan Simsek in the English-language daily The New Anatolian.
Erdogan still needs the EU to modernise Turkey's laws and
institutions and to keep foreign investment flowing into its
booming economy, analysts say, but his heart is no longer in it.
He likes to portray Turkey as a bridge between the West and
the Muslim world, helping to avert a "clash of civilisations".
Turkey, which under the Ottoman Empire once ruled much of
the Middle East, also has strong practical reasons to cultivate
its Muslim neighbours, even anti-Western Iran and Syria.
But analysts say the AKP has probably forfeited for good the
trust of the Israelis -- crucial if it is to be taken seriously
as an honest broker in the Middle East -- and they say Erdogan
may also be overestimating Turkey's clout on the global stage.
"Clearly they have ambition for a foreign policy with more
outreach, going beyond Europe, but they are now trying to punch
above their weight," said one Ankara-based EU diplomat.
Cengiz Aktar of Istanbul's Bahcesehir University said the
Hamas visit was an example of the AKP's "inexperience".
The AKP, a loose coalition of liberals, nationalists and
Islamists, was formed only a few months before winning the 2002
general election. Most ministers, including Erdogan, speak no
foreign languages and have a background in provincial politics.
"I see opportunism and sheer clumsiness rather than a clear
Islamist agenda," Aktar said. "They lack sophistication."
He and other analysts also saw in recent foreign policy
moves Erdogan's desire to impress his more Islamist-minded
voters as Turkey gears up for elections next year.
Opinion polls suggest he may be right. One recent survey
showed Turks saw the United States as the single biggest threat
to national security. EU member Greece also scored highly, while
Muslim neighbours Iran, Syria and Iraq barely registered.
